Re: Missing the first shot

WhiskyJoe wrote:
> ****z...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 wrote:
>> Has anyone considered that the reason Oswald apparently missed on his
>> first shot attempt was because of the rifle scope's magnification and
too
>> close range which would have presented Oswald with a very unstable view
at
>> such close range.  Too, shooting at a left-to-right moving target for a
>> right handed shooter is more difficult than a target moving straight
away
>> from the shooter.  Oswald's hesitation after the first shot was
probably
>> to allow more distance that would present a easier target.
> 
> 
> 
> The first shot would certainly be the most difficult for Oswald, 
> regardless whether scope or the iron sights were used. And the
difficulty 
> would increase if he used the scope instead of the iron sights.
> 
> It is much easier to shoot at a moving target if one is firing directly 
> down the axis of travel of the target. Failing that, the next easiest 
> target is to be directly above the axis of travel, as the target moves 
> directly away.
> 
> The limousine was moving almost directly away from sniper's nest, with a

> horizontal angle of 10 degrees or less, for the second and third shots
at 
> frame 222 and 312. But for the first shot, around frame 154, the 
> horizontal angle was 25 degrees. Also, the limousine was moving the 
> fastest at that point.
> 

You start with several false assumptions. The angle was not 25 degrees 
to the right. And the limo was still going slowly then. It would not 
have been a difficult shot.

> The angular speed, the speed at which the shooter would have to 
> continuously adjust his aim, was greatest by far for the first shot. For

> the frame 154 shot, the angular speed was around 5.6 degrees per second,

> at the 15 mph limousine. For the frame 222 shot, the angular speed was 

Show us your data for 15 MPH.

> around 1.8 degrees per second, at the 12 mph limousine. For the frame
312 
> shot, the angular speed was around 0.7 degrees per second, at the 9 mph 
> limousine.
> 
> Expert shots should only miss by up to an inch per 100 yards of range to

> target. Complications from a moving target can be largely eliminated by 
> positioning oneself to shoot down the axis of travel. All plausible
ranges 
> at Dealey Plaza were 100 yards or less, certainly less than 200 yards.
> 

Even firing at a stationary target the rifle itself misses by 6 or 7 
inches at such close distances.

> Any missed shot, a shot that misses the head of JFK and his limousine, 
> strongly implies a shooter who is not experienced at moving targets. If 

How could anyone miss hitting ANYTHING in Dealey Plaza at that distance?

> Oswald fired the first shot, at frame 154, that shot selection alone 
> implies a shooter who has very limited practice at moving targets and
who 
> lacks judgment as to when a shot should be attempted. If he waited three

> or four seconds, he would have had a target moving almost directly away 
> from him. And missing the limousine completely confirms, none to very 
> limited experience at moving targets.
> 

And you are forgetting that the rifle is a bolt action which takes about 
a couple of seconds between shots. If the shooter needed all 4 shots to 
do the job that would take about 6 seconds, by which time the limo could 
have sped up and gotten away.

> An early miss is very bad because it may cause the target, JFK, to duck 
> out of sight. U. S. Sniper's motto is "One Shot, One Kill" precisely 
> because a missed shot will usually cause failure, due to the target 
> ducking. Most successful sniper attacks have a first shot that is fatal.
> 
> The biggest handicap that Oswald operated under, was not his lack of 
> practice at moving targets, but his lack of judgment in being able to 
> figure out when he should fire and when he should wait. Of course, 
> extensive practice at moving targets of various types, moving at right 
> angle, moving at an angle, moving directly away, would have made it self

> evident when he should fire. But he did not have that experience.
> 

You seem to be forgetting about the oak tree.

> Likely, Oswald used the iron sights. For the price he paid for the rifle

> and scope, the scope was probably not mounted by an expert. There is no 

The scope WAS mounted and sighted by an expert.

> evidence it ever had the ****ms needed to adjust it. And it's unlikely
the 

They had to ****m it to test fired it. It was loose and damaged.

> company that ****pped the rifle would have had this properly adjusted. He


Klein's did so.

> likely would have discovered, even in limited practice, that the iron 
> sights were much better. The iron sights are robust and reliable. And
his 
> training in the Marines was with iron sights, not with scopes. Also, his

> firing at frame 222, just 0.8 seconds after JFK clears the tree,
strongly 
> implies the use of the iron sights. It would be difficult to acquire the

> target with a scope in just 0.8 seconds, particularly for someone with 
> limited experience at moving targets.
> 

Where do you get your 0.8 seconds?

> An extremely unfortunate aspect of this shooting is the iron sights. The

> were zero sighted at 200 meters. This means that when firing at a target

> less than 200 meters away, the shot tends to miss high by several
inches. 
> More than 200 meters, the shot missed low, by over foot after something 
> like 250 meters.
> 

For some rifles with some ammo. Show us the specifics for Oswald's rifle 
using Oswald's ammo.

> The purpose of fixed sights were to allow just one less thing to go
wrong 
> in battle. For soldiers who are tired, scared, sleep deprived, etc., it
is 
> very common for them to forget to adjust the sights of there rifles.
This 
> can result in wild misses, by several feet or more.
> 
> The last successful cavalry charge in the history of the British Empire,

> in 1917, by the Australian Light Horse, probably owned it's success to 
> most of the Turkish infantry having their adjustable sights set to 1600 
> meters, the maximum range, the range they opened fired at during the 
> charge. 1600 meters is way to far, for non experts, and probably for 
> experts, even with the sights adjusted correctly for this range, at
moving 
> targets. As the range closed, most forget to adjust the sights. So, at
the 
> decisive range, 100 meters or less, the Turkish bullets bore in right at

> chest height, 1500 meters behind the charging Australians, but missing
the 
> Australians themselves by several feet, over their heads.
> 

Fairly accurate.

> Most decisive combat, by non expert shooters, takes place at 200 meters
or 
> less, often, at lot less. Using fixed sights set at 200 meters ensures a

> shooter's aim won't be off by more than about seven inches at any range 
> for 0 to 230 meters. Had the Turks been provided with Carcano rifles,
they 
> likely would have caused the Charge of the Light Horsemen to fail.
> 
> Now, what effect would the movement of the limousine have for a shot
fired 
> at frame 310? It would take about 0.13 seconds for the shot to arrive, 
> about 2.5 Zapruder frames. During that time, the 9 mph limousine would 
> move about 24 inches. However, since Oswald is firing not at right
angles, 
> but at 4 degrees horizontally (almost directly behind, but slightly to
the 

Where do you get your 4 degrees?

> right) and down at 13 degrees relative to the limousine, the target will

> move, from Oswald's point of view, sin(13) * 24 = 5 inches upward and 
> about sin(4) * 24 = 1.5 inch to the left. And so, unfortunately, fixed 
> iron sights should cause the rifle to miss high by 5 inches at 88 yards.
> 
> So, the error caused by the movement of the target, 5 inches, is
canceled 
> out by the error cause by the fixed iron sights being set for 200 meters

> instead of 88 yards. This was very bad luck. Oswald's iron sights
provided 
> him with the perfect lead for the frame 312 shot, to make up for the 
> movement of the target.
> 

Which explains the close miss by the TSBD shooter.

> The fixed sights also provided a pretty good lead for the frame 222
shot, 
> where one would expect a miss of 2 inches horizontally and two inches 
> vertically. Of course, Oswald missed by 8 inches, probably because the 
> still relatively high angular speed, 1.8 degrees per second, and only 
> allow himself 0.8 seconds to aim at a totally unobstructed target.
> 
> The fixed sights caused not nearly as good a solution for the frame 154 
> shot, a horizontal miss of around 9 inches. Of course, his missing the 
> limousine was not caused by this problem but by some other problem, most

> likely, the 5.6 degrees per second angular speed of the target.
> 
> In conclusion, there was a lot of bad luck at Dealey Plaza. The bend in 
> Elm Street allowed Oswald a perfect stretch of road to fire down, with
the 
> target moving directly away from him, without Oswald having to make an 
> impossible lean out the window if Elm Street was straight, as so many 

Kinda hard for the anyone to lean out of the window when it was open 
only a few inches! But don't let facts get in your way.

> other streets are in Dallas. And the fixed irons sights providing him
with 
> a very good lead for the shot at frame 222 and particularly for frame
312. 
> The Furies worked against us that day.
> 

The CIA made mistakes, as usual.