Re: Missing the first shot

claviger wrote:
> Andrew,
> 
> I think your theory is very interesting. The method you use to find a
shot 
> between z224 and z313 that matches the auricular perception of a
majority 
> of witnesses is a good example of deductive logic based on the premise 3

> shots were fired and all 3 hit targets separately, and most im****tant,
the 
> first shot struck the President. Some eyewitness testimony would seem to

> verify the first shot did indeed strike the President in the back. As I 
> mentioned before Howard Donahue, an expert in the field of ballistics, 
> thinks 3 shots were fired, all 3 resulting in wounds to the President. 
> However, he believes the first shot hit the street and the President was

> wounded by a fragment created by the ricochet.
> 
> Using the perceived sound pattern mentioned by a majority of witnesses
as 
> the most im****tant factor that must be explained, there are only 3
options 
> that make sense: The Mason theory, Holland theory, or the Donahue
theory. 
> Those are the only theories that can account for 3 shots, the last 2 
> closer than the first 2.

The Holland theory requires a shot before Zapruder started filming - 
even then he gets 7 seconds and 5 seconds between shots. The last two 
are hardly in rapid succession and the 7:5 ratio is far from the 2:1 
ratio that many of the witnesses estimated.

> 
> While your theory is unique, and well researched, it has some major 
> problems to overcome. A significant group of witnesses saw the first
shot 
> miss and bounce off the street, or heard the first shot prior to z224. 
> Those witnesses cannot be easily dismissed.

No. None saw a shot miss and bounce off the street. Some said they 
recalled something bounce off the street or curb.

> 
> _________________________________________________
> 
> "On hearing the first burst of firing, Sheriff Bill Decker glances back 
> and thinks he sees a bullet bouncing off the street pavement. Motorcycle

> officer, Starvis Ellis also will testify he sees a bullet hit the 
> pavement. (Neither Decker nor Ellis will ever be questioned about this
by 
> the Warren Commission.) Motorcycle officer James Chaney will also tell 
> newsmen this day that the first shot missed. It is suggested that JFK is

> hit by small pieces of the street pavement, and stops waving for a 
> moment."

This evidence is not accurate. You need the actual statements, not the 
editorialized versions.

Decker stated that he recalled two shots and the first one did not hit 
the pavement - it hit JFK:

"As the Motorcade was proceeding down Elm Street, I distinctly remember 
hearing 2 shots. As I heard the first retort, I looked back over my 
shoulder and saw what appeared to me to bo a spray of water coming out 
of the rear seat of the President's car ."

Decker Exhibit 5323, 19 H 458

http://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh19/html/WH_Vol19_0238b.htm

Stavis Ellis never gave a statement to the WC. He made a statement in 
1978 to the HSCA and for the first time ever mentioned something
hitting the road. He said he was 100 feet ahead of the President's car 
on a motorcycle. Ellis says he looked back and saw something hit the 
curb. It may be recalled that photographer Ike Altgens also said he saw 
particles hit the road near him: pieces of flesh and brain of the 
President. If it had been a bullet, one might expect to see a mark on 
the curb, such as the mark found on the curb next to James Tague. No 
mark was ever found despite meticulous searching by the FBI.

Chaney was quoted in the Houston Chronicle on Nov. 24/63 (referred to by 
Mark Lane before the WC at 2 H 43) saying that he thought the first shot 
missed. He didn't say why he thought that and, in particular, he didn't 
say that it hit the road or anything else.

BJ Martin is often referred to as a "first shot miss" witness based on 
his testimony before the HSCA. The problem is that he never said that to 
the WC. In fact, he said this (6 H 291):

"Mr. BALL. Did you take any notice of the President after the first shot?
Mr. MARTIN. Yes, sir; I looked at the President after I heard the shot 
and he was leaning forward-I could see the left side of his face. At the 
time he had no expression on his face."

That makes Martin a "first shot hit" witness. (it is certainly not a 
description of JFK turning, smiling and waving to the crowd as we see in 
the zfilm up to about z200).



> 
> Assassination Research.com
> 
> 
> "Stavis (Steve) Ellis, motorcycle officer who saw the first shot miss
and 
> hit the south curb of Elm Street (in Sneed's No More Silence)."
> 
> Notices and Recent Additions to the JFK Web Site
> 
> _________________________________________________
> 
> In addition, Victoria Adams, Emmet Hudson, Glen Bennett, and Tina Towner

> also witnessed a shot prior to z224. And of course Virgie Rachley Baker 
> and Royce Skelton were the first to mention the first shot bounced off
the 
> street near the Limousine. There are other witnesses who mention the 
> President slumps in his seat after the 2nd shot.

Lots of people witnessed a first shot before z224 because the first shot 
was around z200, according to the witnesses (Betzner, Willis, and about 
22 others who located the first shot after z191)

Virgie Baker (Rackley) was standing in front of the TSBD. She said she 
saw something hit in front of the President's car on the road (her 
November 24, 1963 interview). However, in her deposition to the WC, she 
said (7 H 510) that it hit behind the limo and said that the limo was 
past the Stemmons sign at that time. (She marks the position at point 
"2" on exhibit CE354). That would put the location of the car at least 
at frame 250. Hardly a first shot, because JFK is reacting by then. And 
hardly a miss. She may have seen flesh and blood or bone striking the 
road, which we know occurred at about the location Baker identified.

> 
> From reading all the witness testimony I can find, my opinion is many of

> the witnesses are confusing "the first shot" with the second shot that 
> wounded the President. It is the second sound they heard but the first 
> sound they perceived as a gunshot. No witness said the President slumped

> after the first firecracker.

I don't follow you. If you are saying that no witness said the President 
slumped after the first shot-like sound, you are not correct. 19 
witnesses by my count observed just that. see: 
http://www.dufourlaw.com/jfk/first_shot_hit_witnesses.PDF

  Some witnesses did say he sat upright after
> the firecracker, which may be true according to the Donahue theory. That

> theory asserts the President received a flesh wound of either a fragment

> of the bullet or cement particles that embedded into his skin causing
him 
> to exclaim, "My God, I've been hit!" It was probably the latter because 
> cement particles were noticed on the President's face by mortuary 
> employees.

Again, you have to use real evidence. No one found particles on the 
President that were actually shown to be cement. This grey powder may 
have been his own aspirated brain cells.

> 
> You have placed a shot at z270 which is problematic because that frame
is 
> blocked by a lightpost.

I don't follow you there. At z270 a lightpost blocks Zapruder's view of 
JFK but not Oswald's.

  However, Gov. Connally is still in an upright
> posture in that frame to be wounded in the side, but it might be the
case 
> he is having a delayed reaction to being wounded, which is a known
medical 
> phenomenon. 

But contrary to his very clear evidence that he felt the shot, that it 
was very forceful, and he immediately realized he was seriously hit.

Both the President and Gov. Connally seem slow to react to
> their wounds, but we must keep in mind each frame is only 1/18th of a 
> second. Enlargement of frames z224-225 indicate Connally is wounded 
> simultaneous with the President.

In your mind, maybe. Connally said he reacted to the first shot so it is 
not surprising that he reacts a little after we see JFK reacting. We 
can't tell when JFK begins to react because he is behind the sign prior 
to z223.
> 
> Have you found any witnesses who claim to see a separate wound between
> the back shot and head shot?

yes. Nellie Connally, David Powers, Gayle Newman, corroborated by Wm. 
Greer.  SA Hickey and SA Kinney saw JFk's hair fly up on the second 
shot. Look at the zfilm carefully and you can see it fly up. Guess where?

Andrew Mason