Re: Missing the first shot

claviger wrote:
> On May 29, 8:49 am, Andrew Mason <a.ma...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> claviger wrote:
>>> Andrew,
>>> I think your theory is very interesting. The method you use to find a
shot
>>> between z224 and z313 that matches the auricular perception of a
majority
>>> of witnesses is a good example of deductive logic based on the premise
3
>>> shots were fired and all 3 hit targets separately, and most im****tant,
the
>>> first shot struck the President. Some eyewitness testimony would seem
to
>>> verify the first shot did indeed strike the President in the back. As
I
>>> mentioned before Howard Donahue, an expert in the field of ballistics,
>>> thinks 3 shots were fired, all 3 resulting in wounds to the President.
>>> However, he believes the first shot hit the street and the President
was
>>> wounded by a fragment created by the ricochet.
>>> Using the perceived sound pattern mentioned by a majority of witnesses
as
>>> the most im****tant factor that must be explained, there are only 3
options
>>> that make sense: The Mason theory, Holland theory, or the Donahue
theory.
>>> Those are the only theories that can account for 3 shots, the last 2
>>> closer than the first 2.
>> The Holland theory requires a shot before Zapruder started filming -
>> even then he gets 7 seconds and 5 seconds between shots. The last two
>> are hardly in rapid succession and the 7:5 ratio is far from the 2:1
>> ratio that many of the witnesses estimated.
> The Max Holland theory is interesting because if there was no shot
> between the back shot and the head shot the first shot must have taken
> place at or before z133 to fit the time perception of the last two
> shots being closer together compared to the first two. The Zapruder
> film was estimated to be 18.3 frames per second. Some think it was a
> bit slower, but using the 18.3 number simple math reveals the time
> interval between z224 and z313 is 4.86 seconds. From z133 to z224 is
> 4.97 seconds. As you can see that puts z224 halfway between the first
> and last shots in the shooting sequence.
> 
> However, according to a majority of the witnesses the last two shots
> were perceived to be closer than the first two. Unless it can be
> proved there was a shot between the two known shots at z224 and z313,
> the first shot must have come before z224. If it did, based on the
> majority of the collective witness sound perceptions, the first shot
> must have come at z133 or earlier. Either that is the case or the
> majority of witnesses were wrong.
> 
>>> While your theory is unique, and well researched, it has some major
>>> problems to overcome. A significant group of witnesses saw the first
shot
>>> miss and bounce off the street, or heard the first shot prior to z224.
>>> Those witnesses cannot be easily dismissed.
>> No. None saw a shot miss and bounce off the street. Some said they
>> recalled something bounce off the street or curb.
> And what would that "something" be? Two police officers thought it was
> a bullet. So did two citizens. They say it was the first shot so it
> can't be skull fragments.
> 
> ________________________________________________
>>> "On hearing the first burst of firing, Sheriff Bill Decker glances
back
>>> and thinks he sees a bullet bouncing off the street pavement.
Motorcycle
>>> officer, Starvis Ellis also will testify he sees a bullet hit the
>>> pavement. (Neither Decker nor Ellis will ever be questioned about this
by
>>> the Warren Commission.) Motorcycle officer James Chaney will also tell
>>> newsmen this day that the first shot missed. It is suggested that JFK
is
>>> hit by small pieces of the street pavement, and stops waving for a
>>> moment."
>> This evidence is not accurate. You need the actual statements, not the
>> editorialized versions.
>>
>> Decker stated that he recalled two shots and the first one did not hit
>> the pavement - it hit JFK:
>>
>> "As the Motorcade was proceeding down Elm Street, I distinctly remember
>> hearing 2 shots. As I heard the first retort, I looked back over my
>> shoulder and saw what appeared to me to bo a spray of water coming out
>> of the rear seat of the President's car ."
>>
>> Decker Exhibit 5323, 19 H 458
>>
>>
http://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh19/html/WH_Vol...
> If Decker looked back at the time of the head shot then he could have
> seen a fragment of the bullet bounce off the street pavement or a
> piece of skull. According to this quote he only heard 2 shots. If so
> he is one more witness where the first sound didn't register as a
> gunshot. However, the other quote by Decker sounds like he saw a
> bullet bounce off the pavement at some point when shots were fired.
> 
>> Stavis Ellis never gave a statement to the WC. He made a statement in
>> 1978 to the HSCA and for the first time ever mentioned something
>> hitting the road. He said he was 100 feet ahead of the President's car
>> on a motorcycle. Ellis says he looked back and saw something hit the
>> curb. It may be recalled that photographer Ike Altgens also said he saw
>> particles hit the road near him: pieces of flesh and brain of the
>> President. If it had been a bullet, one might expect to see a mark on
>> the curb, such as the mark found on the curb next to James Tague. No
>> mark was ever found despite meticulous searching by the FBI.
> Yes, the quote I gave you earlier said neither Ellis nor Decker were
> called to testify before the WC. Ellis gave a detailed description of
> what he saw to this writer.
> 
>> Chaney was quoted in the Houston Chronicle on Nov. 24/63 (referred to
by
>> Mark Lane before the WC at 2 H 43) saying that he thought the first
shot
>> missed. He didn't say why he thought that and, in particular, he didn't
>> say that it hit the road or anything else.
> No one said he saw anything hit the road. Chaney is a corroborating
> witness in the motorcade who states the first shot missed.
> 
>> BJ Martin is often referred to as a "first shot miss" witness based on
>> his testimony before the HSCA. The problem is that he never said that
to
>> the WC. In fact, he said this (6 H 291):
>>
>> "Mr. BALL. Did you take any notice of the President after the first
shot?
>> Mr. MARTIN. Yes, sir; I looked at the President after I heard the shot
>> and he was leaning forward-I could see the left side of his face. At
the
>> time he had no expression on his face."
>>
>> That makes Martin a "first shot hit" witness. (it is certainly not a
>> description of JFK turning, smiling and waving to the crowd as we see
in
>> the zfilm up to about z200).
> At the sound of the first shot Martin looked to his right and saw the
> TSBD, not the Grassy Knoll. Other witnesses say the first shot came
> when the Limousine was in front of the TSBD.
> 
>>> Assassination Research.com
>>> "Stavis (Steve) Ellis, motorcycle officer who saw the first shot miss
and
>>> hit the south curb of Elm Street (in Sneed's No More Silence)."
>>> Notices and Recent Additions to the JFK Web Site
>>> _________________________________________________
>>> In addition, Victoria Adams, Emmet Hudson, Glen Bennett, and Tina
Towner
>>> also witnessed a shot prior to z224. And of course Virgie Rachley
Baker
>>> and Royce Skelton were the first to mention the first shot bounced off
the
>>> street near the Limousine. There are other witnesses who mention the
>>> President slumps in his seat after the 2nd shot.
>> Lots of people witnessed a first shot before z224 because the first
shot
>> was around z200, according to the witnesses (Betzner, Willis, and about
>> 22 others who located the first shot after z191)
> ______________________________________________________________
> 
> Gary Mack:
> 
> "One of the best witnesses is photographer Tina Towner. Tina has
> always been specific that the first shot came just a second or two
> AFTER she stopped filming; she actually stopped only a second or two
> before Z133. Your hypotheses, that the first shot came while the limo
> was in the middle of the first pair of road stripes (or earlier),
> requires the first shot to have been fired one or two seconds BEFORE
> Towner stopped filming. That just can't be true. Take a look at the
> full frame Towner film we used in the Discovery Channel show "Death In
> Dealey Plaza" and watch for the road stripes. Towner could not
> possibly have been confused about when the first shot was fired in
> relation to when her film ended.
> 
> Other evidence is even more powerful. A recorded interview with DPD
> Sgt. Jim Chaney the afternoon of the assassination places the first
> shot at around Z160. Chaney, riding only a few feet to the right rear
> of the limo, explained that the first shot came as Jackie was "looking
> to her left." She does that, very briefly, around Z160 (see the Croft
> #3 photo for reference). That frame happens to fall some two or three
> seconds after Towner stopped filming."
> ______________________________________________________________
> 
>> Virgie Baker (Rackley) was standing in front of the TSBD. She said she
>> saw something hit in front of the President's car on the road (her
>> November 24, 1963 interview). However, in her deposition to the WC, she
>> said (7 H 510) that it hit behind the limo and said that the limo was
>> past the Stemmons sign at that time. (She marks the position at point
>> "2" on exhibit CE354). That would put the location of the car at least
>> at frame 250. Hardly a first shot, because JFK is reacting by then. And
>> hardly a miss. She may have seen flesh and blood or bone striking the
>> road, which we know occurred at about the location Baker identified.
> The head shot occurred way past the Stemmons sign, so it wasn't bone
> striking the road.
> 
>>> From reading all the witness testimony I can find, my opinion is many
of
>>> the witnesses are confusing "the first shot" with the second shot that
>>> wounded the President. It is the second sound they heard but the first
>>> sound they perceived as a gunshot. No witness said the President
slumped
>>> after the first firecracker.
>> I don't follow you. If you are saying that no witness said the
President
>> slumped after the first shot-like sound, you are not correct. 19
>> witnesses by my count observed just that.
see:http://www.dufourlaw.com/jfk/first_shot_hit_witnesses.PDF
> Again, the first shot perceived as a gunshot, not a firecracker. Did
> any witness say the President slumped after the first firecracker?
> 
>>   Some witnesses did say he sat upright after
>>
>>> the firecracker, which may be true according to the Donahue theory.
That
>>> theory asserts the President received a flesh wound of either a
fragment
>>> of the bullet or cement particles that embedded into his skin causing
him
>>> to exclaim, "My God, I've been hit!" It was probably the latter
because
>>> cement particles were noticed on the President's face by mortuary
>>> employees.
>> Again, you have to use real evidence. No one found particles on the
>> President that were actually shown to be cement. This grey powder may
>> have been his own aspirated brain cells.
> The mortuary employees said it was cement. Do aspirated brain cells
> turn to powder or become gritty like cement?
> 
>>> You have placed a shot at z270 which is problematic because that frame
is
>>> blocked by a lightpost.
>> I don't follow you there. At z270 a lightpost blocks Zapruder's view of
>> JFK but not Oswald's.
> We can't see Gov. Connally because of the lightpost.
> 
>>   However, Gov. Connally is still in an upright
>>
>>> posture in that frame to be wounded in the side, but it might be the
case
>>> he is having a delayed reaction to being wounded, which is a known
medical
>>> phenomenon.
>> But contrary to his very clear evidence that he felt the shot, that it
>> was very forceful, and he immediately realized he was seriously hit.
> From what I've read people who are shot sometimes have a delayed
> reaction. They don't even realize they have been shot for a few
> seconds. Others are stunned for few seconds. Even when the bullet
> feels like a mule kicked them they are stunned for a few moments and
> don't react, like ducking down. They continue to stay in the same
> position until someone else pulls them down. In this case Nellie
> Connally had to pull her husband down to get him out of the line of
> fire.
> 
>> Both the President and Gov. Connally seem slow to react to
>>
>>> their wounds, but we must keep in mind each frame is only 1/18th of a
>>> second. Enlargement of frames z224-225 indicate Connally is wounded
>>> simultaneous with the President.
>> In your mind, maybe. Connally said he reacted to the first shot so it
is
>> not surprising that he reacts a little after we see JFK reacting. We
>> can't tell when JFK begins to react because he is behind the sign prior
>> to z223.
> Close inspection of a blowup of the film indicates Gov. Connally is
> reacting to a shot in z223-226.
> 
> Little JFK Page - SBT - z223-z226
> http://users.skynet.be/mar/Eng/SBT/223-226-eng.htm
> 
>>> Have you found any witnesses who claim to see a separate wound between
>>> the back shot and head shot?
>> yes. Nellie Connally, David Powers, Gayle Newman, corroborated by Wm.
>> Greer.  SA Hickey and SA Kinney saw JFk's hair fly up on the second
>> shot. Look at the zfilm carefully and you can see it fly up. Guess
where?
> The Connallys both say JBC was hit by the second shot, which is of
> course true if the first shot missed.
> 
> Greer:
> 
> "The President's automobile was almost past this building and I was
> looking at the overpass that we were about to pass under in case
> someone was on top of it, when I heard what I thought was the backfire
> of a motorcycle behind the President's automobile. After the second
> shot, I glanced over my right shoulder and saw Governor Connally start
> to fall, I knew then that something was wrong and I immediately pushed
> the accelerator to the floor and Mr. Kellerman said, get out of here."
> 
> "Mr. SPECTER. Do you have an independent recollection at this moment
> of having heard three shots at that time?
> Mr. GREER. I knew that after I heard the second one, that is when I
> looked over my shoulder, and I was conscious that there was something
> wrong, because that is when I saw Governor Connally. And when I turned
> around again, to the best of my recollection there was another one,
> right immediately after."
> 
> Again, the second shot hit Gov. Connally.
> 
> Hickey: Said he heard one shot that sounded like a firecracker and
> then two more shots when he saw the President's hair fly up.
> 
> Kinney: "I did hear three shots but do not recall which shots were
> those that hit the President."
> 
> Dave Powers is the only witness who thought he heard 3 shots and saw 3
> wounds.
> 
> You are working with the assumption that a majority of witnesses can't
> be wrong about hearing a total of 3 shots with the last two being
> closer together. A majority of witnesses heard it that way. However,
> you have the opposite problem of nothing close to a majority of
> witnesses who saw 3 wounds with 3 shots or a shot and wound between
> the back shot and head shot.
> 
> 
> 
> 


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