On Wed, 02 Jul 2008 10:29:34 -0700, Bert Fannin
<bwfannin@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>On Mon, 30 Jun 2008 21:29:08 -0700, "theloneranger100@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
"
><theloneranger10O@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>>Because they want to allure you into believing their goofy
>>astrology......What else?
>>
>>Burp doesn't know how to read Astrology charts nor does he know
>>how to read Stock Market charts....
>>
>>Mark his word, he said "Attacking on Iran" is imminent this July
>>2008.
>>
>>
>======================================================================================================
>
>
>Geopolitical Diary: Pressure on the Global System and the Saudi
>Release Valve
>July 1, 2008
>Geopolitical Diary Graphic — FINAL
>
>The Europeans have re****ted that inflation has risen to 4 percent on
>an annualized basis. In historical terms (think the 1970s), this isn’t
>much. It is, however, the largest increase since the creation of the
>European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has a different mandate that the
>U.S. Federal Reserve System. The Fed is charged with managing the
>country’s economic well-being across a broad spectrum, including
>controlling inflation and facilitating growth. It can use its judgment
>as to what it should focus on. The ECB, by contrast, has a single
>mandate: controlling inflation. That may change at some point, but
>right now, that mandate applies — and that means that the ECB will
>fight inflation regardless of the consequence. The general consensus
>is thus that the ECB will raise interest rates.
>
>That may help control inflation, but it also will strengthen the euro
>and weaken the dollar as money flows into European banks. As the
>dollar weakens, the price of commodities — particularly oil — will
>continue to rise. A stronger euro may mitigate some of the effects of
>that rise. But as the price of oil rises, so will Europe’s and the
>rest of the world’s cost of living. As the Fed pursues a policy of
>maintaining liquidity to avoid a recession, the ECB will go in the
>opposite direction. The result is a dangerous cycle.
>
>The real issue isn’t Fed or ECB policy or synchronizing them. That
>isn’t going to happen. The real issue is whether anyone is going to
>intervene in this cycle before massive imbalances in the system move
>the global economy into massive recession as the Bank of International
>Settlements warned Monday. There are so many moving pieces that it is
>difficult to conceive of any particular act making a difference, save
>for one actor and one action. That would be Saudi Arabia indicating a
>commitment to increase oil production dramatically. That announcement
>would ****ft the momentum of oil prices and begin to release some of
>the pressure on the global system.
>
>On the surface, it might appear the Saudis would want the highest
>price possible. But in reality they benefit more from having the
>highest sustainable price over the long run. A massive global
>recession is going to cut demand for oil. Furthermore, the 1970s
>taught that extremely high oil prices generate increased oil
>exploration and production. It took years to bring this oil online,
>but when it finally did come online in the 1980s and 1990s, the Saudis
>fell victim to excruciatingly low prices. The bust lasted longer than
>the boom.
>
>The Saudis remember that well. They are in the game for the long haul
>— or at least as long as their oil lasts — because they have no other
>game to play. They love high oil prices, but it is inimical to their
>interests to have oil prices so high that it undermines demand while
>energizing investment in competitive supplies and technologies. If the
>Saudis learned anything from the last cycle, it is that they shouldn’t
>push things too hard.
>
>We focus on the Saudis because no other single actor has the potential
>for unilateral action that might lower oil prices, relieving the price
>pressure in Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen and hopefully —
>but by no means certainly —stabilizing the international economic
>system. We were not impressed by the subprime crisis alone, but the
>subprime crisis coupled with extreme commodity prices is another
>matter.
>
>The Saudi oil conference that ended June 22 had no effect, and the
>Saudis didn’t expect it to. It was a gesture designed to placate
>politicians around the world. As oil moves toward $150 a barrel, the
>system is creaking under the strain. If it cracks, the Saudis will not
>be the winners in the long run. The Americans and Europeans are not
>going to manage the crisis and it is not clear that even the Saudis
>can. But right now, it is Riyadh’s move. They are not particularly
>sensitive to outside pressure, but they do remember the mistakes they
>made in the 1970s. If the Saudis make no move, then the Bank of
>International Settlement may turn out to be right in its warnings.
>
>
>© Copyright 2008 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.
>
>
>
Please see the web site www.stratfor.com This is an excellent source
of professional Intel and analysis.
Bert W. Fannin
Western sidereal Astrologer
bwfannin@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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