Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh Font Size: Decrease
Increase Print Page: Print Phil Chapman | April 23, 2008
THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is
www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun
from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at
the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.
What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny
sunspot.
Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the
average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined
during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global
temperature is falling precipitously.
All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate
Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and
Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) re****t that it cooled by
about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the
instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the
temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that
global warming is over.
There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally
cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter
in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in
the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook
discovered the place in 1770.
It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends
from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold
snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years.
This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of
somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum
was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start
soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and
lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished
within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that
there will be many more, and soon.
The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between
variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. The previous time
a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially
cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.
Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of
Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at
least partly due to the lack of sunspots.
That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure
of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal
connection but it is cause for concern.
It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin
contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another
little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.
There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse
than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may
do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a
few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada.
Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling
will decrease it.
Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as
planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will
die from cold-related diseases.
There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The
Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the
past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always
afflicted our planet.
The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North
America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly
frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm
interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years.
The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history,
called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We
also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in
global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.
The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for
another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the
cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions.
If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in
2027.
By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist,
vani****ng under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with
a catastrophe beyond imagining.
Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by
millions of refugees. Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000
centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time.
If the ice age is coming, there is a small chance that we could
prevent or at least delay the transition, if we are prepared to take
action soon enough and on a large enough scale.
For example: We could gather all the bulldozers in the world and use
them to dirty the snow in Canada and Siberia in the hope of reducing
the reflectance so as to absorb more warmth from the sun.
We also may be able to release enormous floods of methane (a potent
greenhouse gas) from the hydrates under the Arctic permafrost and on
the continental shelves, perhaps using nuclear weapons to destabilise
the deposits.
We cannot really know, but my guess is that the odds are at least
50-50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in
coming decades.
The probability that we are witnessing the onset of a real ice age is
much less, perhaps one in 500, but not totally negligible.
All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the
blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing
global cooling instead.
It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their
reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change
depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at
stake.
In the famous words of Oliver Cromwell, "I beseech you, in the bowels
of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken."
Phil Chapman is a geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in
San Francisco. He was the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html
On Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:34:32 -0400, Captain Compassion
<darance@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>J <Windswept@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> On Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:53:53 -0700 (PDT), Badabeck
>> <andrewranger01@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>
>> > the all powerful liberal elite media who control what we think.
>>
>> Speak f'y'self. twinky.
>>
>Thank God that there are still a handful of self taught experts like
>you and the energy industry funded right wing think tanks who are on to
the
>big, secret plot by Al Gore, the legitimate science community, President
>Bush, the national governments of the world and the multinationals!!
>
>They're obviously a bunch of Lefty Socialist Tree Huggers and they've
even
>got Bush, the US government and major multinational cor****ations
brainwashed
>because they say that it's happening too!!! There are dozens of
capitalist
>multinationals who have been hoodwinked by Gore's Godless Socialist
>Scientists into committing tens of $millions to greenhouse gas reduction!
>
>Isn't it obvious that they're not as smart as you are? A jobless right
wing
>mental cripple with a drool cup.
>
>Bush has gone socialist lefty on us!! Anyone who sup****ts Bush and the
>multinationals is a Socialist Enviro Fagot!!!
>
>Bush Admits to Role of Humans in Global Warming
>By Caroline Daniel and Fiona Harvey
>Financial Times
>
>Thursday 07 July 2005
>
>President George W. Bush yesterday acknowledged more openly than in the
>past the role of human activity in causing global warming, as he
>travelled to Scotland for the summit of the Group of Eight
>industrialised nations.
>
>"I recognise the surface of the earth is warmer and that an increase in
>greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem," he
>said during a visit to Denmark en route to Gleneagles.
>
>------
>
>Largest cor****ations agree to cut global warming emissions
>February 20, 2007
>
>More than 100 top executives from the private sector and leaders of
>international governmental and non-governmental organizations
>unveileved a plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions. They said
>governments need to take immediate steps to stop global warming.
>
>"Failing to act now would lead to far higher economic and environmental
>costs and greater risk of irreversible impacts," warned the Global
>Roundtable on Climate Change in a statement issued Tuesday. "Long-term
>success will require a concerted effort to de-carbonize the global
>energy
>system."
>
>The Roundtable put forth a series of recommendations for world
>governments to reduce the risk of climate change including setting
>"scientifically informed" targets for global CO2 concentrations,
>developing a carbon trading market, promoting energy efficiency and de-
>carbonization through the increased used of renewable energy, providing
>incentines to reduce deforestation and harmful land management
>practices, implementing adaption strategies to prepare populations for
>the impact of global change, and launching public awareness campaigns
>to inform citizens of the risks of and solutions to climate change.
>
>"Cost-efficient technologies exist today, and others could be developed
>and deployed, to improve energy efficiency and to help reduce emissions
>of CO2 and other GHGs in major sectors of the global economy," stated
>the Roundtable. "Research indicates that heading off the very dangerous
>risks associated with doubling pre-industrial atmospheric
>concentrations of CO2, while an immense challenge, can be achieved at a
>reasonable cost."
>
>Alcoa, Ford Motor, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Toyota Motor North
>America, and Wal-Mart are among the cor****ations that signed off on the
>initiative.
>
>With cor****ations now making up roughly two-thirds the world's 150
>largest entities, the private sector is arguably as im****tant as
>governments in directing policy on climate change. This new initiative
>will likely increase pressure on the world's largest polluters --
>especially Europe and the United States -- to take action on the issue,
>which could have a devastating economic impact. A study released in
>October by the British government said that economic damage caused by
>global warming could rival that of the Great Depression.
>
>Atmopheric concentrations of carbon dioxide -- the principal greenhouse
>gas produced by human activities -- currently stands at the highest
>levels in at least 650,000 years according to research published in
>2005. Most carbon emissions result from power generation, responsible
>for more than 40 percent of energy-related emissions worldwide.
>Overall, industry accounts for more than 18 percent of emissions,
>trans****t 20 percent, and the residential and services sector 13
>percent. The U.S. is the largest polluter, followed by China.
On Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:34:32 -0400, Captain Compassion
<darance@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>J <Windswept@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> On Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:53:53 -0700 (PDT), Badabeck
>> <andrewranger01@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>>
>> > the all powerful liberal elite media who control what we think.
>>
>> Speak f'y'self. twinky.
>>
>Thank God that there are still a handful of self taught experts like
>you and the energy industry funded right wing think tanks who are on to
the
>big, secret plot by Al Gore, the legitimate science community, President
>Bush, the national governments of the world and the multinationals!!
>
>They're obviously a bunch of Lefty Socialist Tree Huggers and they've
even
>got Bush, the US government and major multinational cor****ations
brainwashed
>because they say that it's happening too!!! There are dozens of
capitalist
>multinationals who have been hoodwinked by Gore's Godless Socialist
>Scientists into committing tens of $millions to greenhouse gas reduction!
>
>Isn't it obvious that they're not as smart as you are? A jobless right
wing
>mental cripple with a drool cup.
>
>Bush has gone socialist lefty on us!! Anyone who sup****ts Bush and the
>multinationals is a Socialist Enviro Fagot!!!
>
>Bush Admits to Role of Humans in Global Warming
>By Caroline Daniel and Fiona Harvey
>Financial Times
>
>Thursday 07 July 2005
>
>President George W. Bush yesterday acknowledged more openly than in the
>past the role of human activity in causing global warming, as he
>travelled to Scotland for the summit of the Group of Eight
>industrialised nations.
>
>"I recognise the surface of the earth is warmer and that an increase in
>greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem," he
>said during a visit to Denmark en route to Gleneagles.
>
>------
>
>Largest cor****ations agree to cut global warming emissions
>February 20, 2007
>
>More than 100 top executives from the private sector and leaders of
>international governmental and non-governmental organizations
>unveileved a plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions. They said
>governments need to take immediate steps to stop global warming.
>
>"Failing to act now would lead to far higher economic and environmental
>costs and greater risk of irreversible impacts," warned the Global
>Roundtable on Climate Change in a statement issued Tuesday. "Long-term
>success will require a concerted effort to de-carbonize the global
>energy
>system."
>
>The Roundtable put forth a series of recommendations for world
>governments to reduce the risk of climate change including setting
>"scientifically informed" targets for global CO2 concentrations,
>developing a carbon trading market, promoting energy efficiency and de-
>carbonization through the increased used of renewable energy, providing
>incentines to reduce deforestation and harmful land management
>practices, implementing adaption strategies to prepare populations for
>the impact of global change, and launching public awareness campaigns
>to inform citizens of the risks of and solutions to climate change.
>
>"Cost-efficient technologies exist today, and others could be developed
>and deployed, to improve energy efficiency and to help reduce emissions
>of CO2 and other GHGs in major sectors of the global economy," stated
>the Roundtable. "Research indicates that heading off the very dangerous
>risks associated with doubling pre-industrial atmospheric
>concentrations of CO2, while an immense challenge, can be achieved at a
>reasonable cost."
>
>Alcoa, Ford Motor, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Toyota Motor North
>America, and Wal-Mart are among the cor****ations that signed off on the
>initiative.
>
>With cor****ations now making up roughly two-thirds the world's 150
>largest entities, the private sector is arguably as im****tant as
>governments in directing policy on climate change. This new initiative
>will likely increase pressure on the world's largest polluters --
>especially Europe and the United States -- to take action on the issue,
>which could have a devastating economic impact. A study released in
>October by the British government said that economic damage caused by
>global warming could rival that of the Great Depression.
>
>Atmopheric concentrations of carbon dioxide -- the principal greenhouse
>gas produced by human activities -- currently stands at the highest
>levels in at least 650,000 years according to research published in
>2005. Most carbon emissions result from power generation, responsible
>for more than 40 percent of energy-related emissions worldwide.
>Overall, industry accounts for more than 18 percent of emissions,
>trans****t 20 percent, and the residential and services sector 13
>percent. The U.S. is the largest polluter, followed by China.
|
