Re: The Real Junk Science

On Thu, 26 May 2005 21:59:35 GMT, "Coby Beck" <cbeck@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
wrote:

>"Wm James" <wrjames.remove@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message 
>news:9jja91dt5o9bemi9de14jd13ol2j6gkuo9@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>> I showed you NASA's own pages:
>> http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/
>>
>> Now you want to pont to a university's pages as proof that NASA's OWN
>> PAGES do not reflect what NASA says?
>
>This is not a NASA study.
>
>"The GHCC is a partner****p comprised of organizational elements from NASA
>Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), the State of Alabama's Space Science
>and Technology Alliance (SSTA), and the Universities Space Research
>Association (USRA)"

NASA was an active participant, particularly at the data collection
level. 

>> It's a direct quote from http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/
>
>It is 5 years old.
>"Last Updated: June 14, 2000"

Irrelevant.  The only thing that's changed if 5 years of more total
failures of the chicken little models.  Five years is meaningless
anyway, you can't undo centuries of data showing the hoax is a hoax
with a testimonial or a irrlevant 5 year sample. 

>Get the real story here:
>http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Read the DATA.  Do you know what "data" is?  From your link:
"We modify the GHCN/USHCN/SCAR data in two stages to get to the
station data on which all our tables, graphs, and maps are based: in
stage 1 we try to combine at each location the time records of the
various sources; in stage 2 we adjust the non-rural stations in such a
way that their longterm trend of annual means is as close as possible
to that of the mean of the neighboring rural stations. Non-rural
stations that cannot be adjusted are dropped."

And keep in mind that page is only dealing with these "adjusted" and
"modified" surface temperatures. 


Try here:
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/MSU/hl_measuretemp.htm
============================================================
Even with Needed Corrections, Data Still Don't Show the Expected
Signature of Global Warming

By 
Dr. Roy Spencer 
Senior Scientist for Climate Studies 
NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center

Originally Published: 8/13/98

The paper published by Wentz and Schabel in Nature this week (August
14, 1998) is bound to generate controversy about the satellite
measurements of global tropospheric temperatures. These measurements,
for the period since 1979, have been made with the TIROS-N satellite
Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs) by myself and Dr. John Christy (The
University of Alabama in Huntsville). We are grateful to Wentz and
Schabel for discovering the first convincing evidence for needed
corrections to our satellite-based global temperatures. 

However, we believe that there are a few im****tant points that should
be considered when re****ting on this paper. 

1) The spurious cooling in the satellite record due to the orbital
decay ("downward drift") effect was only estimated by Wentz and
Schabel as an average adjustment to our processed satellite data.  The
effect, which will have different values for the eight different
satellites in the record, should instead be removed one satellite at a
time before the satellites in the record are intercalibrated.  We
(John Christy and Roy Spencer) have performed this adjustment, with
the results given below. 

2) The effect re****ted by Mr. Wentz had been partly offset by an
east-west drift in the satellites' orbits. The valuable discovery of
the downward drift effect by Wentz and Schabel allowed us to
separately quantify two consequences of the east-west drift (MSU
instrument temperature change, and observation time-of-day change). We
have now performed these adjustments as well (below). 

3) The global decadal temperature trends, for the period 1979-1997,
from the various satellite, weather balloon, and surface temperature
measurements are as follows, in order of increasing temperature trend:
 

DEEP LAYER MEASUREMENTS

Weather balloon trend (Angell/NOAA)		-0.07 deg. C/decade
Unadjusted satellite trend:  			-0.04 deg. C/decade
Weather balloon trend  
(Parker, UK Met Office): 			-0.02 deg. C/decade
Our Adjusted Satellite Trend: 			-0.01 deg. C/decade
Wentz-estimated adjusted satellite trend: 	+0.08 deg. C/decade

 

       SURFACE MEASUREMENTS

Sea surface and land surface temperatures  
(U.K. Met Office): 				+0.15 deg. C/decade

 
It can be seen that the adjustment by Wentz and Schabel does not agree
with our (more complete) adjustments, or to the weather balloon data.
Instead, their adjustment comes closer to the surface thermometer
measurements, and herein lies a temptation to jump to conclusions. 

4) The adjusted satellite trends are still not near the expected value
of global warming predicted by computer climate models. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 1995 estimate of
average global warming at the surface until the year 2100 is +0.18
deg. C/decade. Climate models suggest that the deep layer measured by
the satellite and weather balloons should be warming about 30% faster
than the surface (+0.23 deg. C/decade). None of the satellite or
weather balloon estimates are near this value. 

5) 1998 UPDATE: The last six months of our adjusted satellite record
(February through July 1998) were the warmest in the 20 year record.
The updated trend is now +0.04 deg. C/decade (which is still only
1/6th of the IPCC-expected warming rate). The current demise of El
Nino, and the possibility of a La Nina forming, will likely cause
significant cooling in the coming months.